Albion FC 0–1 Villa Espanola: Result & Stats

Albion FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Villa Espanola

S. López 75'

10/19/2019

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Olímpico (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Albion FC37%

×Draw28%

Villa Espanola35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion FCExpected goals in this matchVilla Espanola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Albion FC

1.21

Villa Espanola

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 43 away

1.24

creates per match

1.26

1.08

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Albion FC

1.24

Villa Espanola

1.26

allows per match

Albion FC

1.08

Villa Espanola

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion FC+0.00on par

Villa Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion FC ↓

Villa Espanola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Albion FC or draw

65%

Albion FC or Villa Espanola

72%

Draw or Villa Espanola

63%

Winning margin

Albion FC wins by 2+

16%

Villa Espanola wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Albion FC 1+ goals

70%

Albion FC 2+ goals

34%

Albion FC 3+ goals

12%

Villa Espanola 1+ goals

69%

Villa Espanola 2+ goals

33%

Villa Espanola 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Albion FC (draw refunded)

51%

Villa Espanola (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Villa Espanola away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion FC attack 1.24 + Villa Espanola defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Villa Espanola attack 1.26 + Albion FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Albion FC scores more

37%

level

28%

Villa Espanola scores more

35%

Albion FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Albion FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

L. Silva← M. Ferreira

63'

75'

75'

75'

82'

F. Cairus← B. Barreto

85'

F. Tancredi← S. López

Albion

Villa

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Nieves

63'▲J. Ortíz←▼F. Laurino

75'▲F. García←▼F. Godoy

82'▲F. Cairus←▼B. Barreto

Albion FC substitutes

OrtízGarcíaCairusArretcheLópezCunhaOrtega

Manager: D. Santín

58'▲L. Silva←▼M. Ferreira

75'▲M. Puglia←▼I. Yepez

85'▲F. Tancredi←▼S. López

Villa Espanola substitutes

SilvaPugliaTancrediZamoranoCostaRodríguezPlaceres