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Villa Dalmine vs Los Andes — Primera Nacional 2026

Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Andes
Los Andes
2/9/2019Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 15Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini (Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Villa Dalmine41%
×Draw31%
Los Andes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Dalmine
1.08
Los Andes
0.84

Villa Dalmine creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 40 away

creates per match

Villa Dalmine
1.10
Los Andes
0.63

allows per match

Villa Dalmine
1.05
Los Andes
1.05

finishing

Villa Dalmine+0.00on par
Los Andes+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Dalmine ↓

Los Andes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Villa Dalmine or draw
72%
Villa Dalmine or Los Andes
69%
Draw or Los Andes
59%

Winning margin

Villa Dalmine wins by 2+
17%
Los Andes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Villa Dalmine 1+ goals
66%
Villa Dalmine 2+ goals
29%
Villa Dalmine 3+ goals
10%
Los Andes 1+ goals
57%
Los Andes 2+ goals
21%
Los Andes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)
59%
Los Andes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Dalmine at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.05 · 77 matches

Los Andes away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.05 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Dalmine attack 1.10 + Los Andes defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Los Andes attack 0.63 + Villa Dalmine defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Villa Dalmine scores more
41%
level
31%
Los Andes scores more
28%

Villa Dalmine at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Villa Dalmine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Dalmine vs Los Andes

Villa Dalmine beat Los Andes 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini (Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires).