Villa Dalmine 0–0 Dock Sud: Result & Stats

Villa Dalmine

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dock Sud

6/30/2024

Primera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 2Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Villa Dalmine39%

×Draw31%

Dock Sud30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villa DalmineExpected goals in this matchDock Sud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.89

Villa Dalmine

1.05

Dock Sud

0.89

Villa Dalmine creates 18% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 86 away

0.89

creates per match

0.99

0.79

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Villa Dalmine

0.89

Dock Sud

0.99

allows per match

Villa Dalmine

0.79

Dock Sud

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villa Dalmine+0.00on par

Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Dalmine ↓

Dock Sud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Villa Dalmine or draw

70%

Villa Dalmine or Dock Sud

69%

Draw or Dock Sud

61%

Winning margin

Villa Dalmine wins by 2+

15%

Dock Sud wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Villa Dalmine 1+ goals

65%

Villa Dalmine 2+ goals

28%

Villa Dalmine 3+ goals

9%

Dock Sud 1+ goals

59%

Dock Sud 2+ goals

22%

Dock Sud 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)

56%

Dock Sud (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Dalmine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 53 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.22 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Dalmine attack 0.89 + Dock Sud defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dock Sud attack 0.99 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Villa Dalmine scores more

39%

level

31%

Dock Sud scores more

30%

Villa Dalmine at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Villa Dalmine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

E. Brizuela← S. Martínez

60'

M. Guzmán← J. González

63'

R. González← M. Resquín

72'

F. Mesa← B. Benítez

76'

F. Sellecchia← J. Arias

85'

A. Nievas← S. Forlani

85'

D. Waller← S. Prim

89'

R. Lobo← Alejandro Ávalos

Villa

Dock

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Aldirico

63'▲R. González←▼M. Resquín

76'▲F. Sellecchia←▼J. Arias

85'▲A. Nievas←▼S. Forlani

85'▲D. Waller←▼S. Prim

Villa Dalmine substitutes

GonzálezSellecchiaNievasWaller

Manager: M. Córdoba

60'▲E. Brizuela←▼S. Martínez

60'▲M. Guzmán←▼J. González

72'▲F. Mesa←▼B. Benítez

89'▲R. Lobo←▼Alejandro Ávalos

Dock Sud substitutes

BrizuelaGuzmánMesaLobo