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Villa Dalmine vs Colegiales — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Villa Dalmine
Villa Dalmine
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colegiales
Colegiales
7/9/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 4Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Villa Dalmine36%
×Draw31%
Colegiales34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villa Dalmine
1.03
Colegiales
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 107 away

creates per match

Villa Dalmine
0.89
Colegiales
1.20

allows per match

Villa Dalmine
0.79
Colegiales
1.17

finishing

Villa Dalmine+0.00on par
Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villa Dalmine ↓

Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Villa Dalmine or draw
66%
Villa Dalmine or Colegiales
69%
Draw or Colegiales
64%

Winning margin

Villa Dalmine wins by 2+
14%
Colegiales wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Villa Dalmine 1+ goals
64%
Villa Dalmine 2+ goals
28%
Villa Dalmine 3+ goals
9%
Colegiales 1+ goals
63%
Colegiales 2+ goals
26%
Colegiales 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villa Dalmine (draw refunded)
52%
Colegiales (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villa Dalmine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.79 · 53 matches

Colegiales away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villa Dalmine attack 0.89 + Colegiales defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Colegiales attack 1.20 + Villa Dalmine defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Villa Dalmine scores more
36%
level
31%
Colegiales scores more
34%

Villa Dalmine at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Villa Dalmine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villa Dalmine vs Colegiales

Colegiales beat Villa Dalmine 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini in Campana, Provincia de Buenos Aires.