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Vilhenense vs Atlético Alagoinhas — Serie D 2026

Vilhenense
Vilhenense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Alagoinhas
Atlético Alagoinhas
10/4/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Portal da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vilhenense42%
×Draw26%
Atlético Alagoinhas32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilhenense
1.41
Atlético Alagoinhas
1.20

Vilhenense creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 41 away

creates per match

Vilhenense
1.14
Atlético Alagoinhas
1.10

allows per match

Vilhenense
1.29
Atlético Alagoinhas
1.68

finishing

Vilhenense+0.00on par
Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilhenense ↓

Atlético Alagoinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vilhenense or draw
68%
Vilhenense or Atlético Alagoinhas
74%
Draw or Atlético Alagoinhas
58%

Winning margin

Vilhenense wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vilhenense 1+ goals
76%
Vilhenense 2+ goals
41%
Vilhenense 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vilhenense (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilhenense at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Atlético Alagoinhas away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilhenense attack 1.14 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.10 + Vilhenense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilhenense scores more
42%
level
26%
Atlético Alagoinhas scores more
32%

Vilhenense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilhenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Vilhenense 1–1 Atlético Alagoinhas

Vilhenense and Atlético Alagoinhas drew 1-1 in Serie D on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Portal da Amazônia in Vilhena, Rondônia.