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Vilémov vs Sokol Libiš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
6 – 4
HT: 2 – 4
Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
9/24/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 8Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov41%
×Draw20%
Sokol Libiš39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
2.27
Sokol Libiš
2.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Sokol Libiš
1.33

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Sokol Libiš
3.00

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Sokol Libiš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
61%
Vilémov or Sokol Libiš
80%
Draw or Sokol Libiš
59%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
24%
Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
90%
Vilémov 2+ goals
66%
Vilémov 3+ goals
39%
Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
64%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
52%
Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sokol Libiš attack 1.33 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vilémov scores more
41%
level
20%
Sokol Libiš scores more
39%

Vilémov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vilémov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Vilémov 6–4 Sokol Libiš

Vilémov beat Sokol Libiš 6-4 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.