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Vilémov vs Slaný — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Slaný
Slaný
5/13/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 26Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov31%
×Draw20%
Slaný49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.74
Slaný
2.23

Slaný creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Slaný
1.39

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Slaný
1.95

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Slaný+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Slaný →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
51%
Vilémov or Slaný
80%
Draw or Slaný
69%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
15%
Slaný wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
82%
Vilémov 2+ goals
52%
Vilémov 3+ goals
25%
Slaný 1+ goals
89%
Slaný 2+ goals
65%
Slaný 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
38%
Slaný (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Slaný away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Slaný defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Slaný attack 1.39 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vilémov scores more
31%
level
20%
Slaný scores more
49%

Slaný at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slaný will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Vilémov 1–3 Slaný

Slaný beat Vilémov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.