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Vilémov vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
3/18/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 18Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov34%
×Draw20%
Olympie Březová45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.92
Olympie Březová
2.22

Olympie Březová creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
55%
Vilémov or Olympie Březová
80%
Draw or Olympie Březová
66%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
18%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
85%
Vilémov 2+ goals
57%
Vilémov 3+ goals
30%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
89%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
65%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
43%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.92

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vilémov scores more
34%
level
20%
Olympie Březová scores more
45%

Olympie Březová at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Olympie Březová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilémov vs Olympie Březová

Olympie Březová beat Vilémov 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.