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Vilémov vs Neratovice-Byškovice — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
2 – 7
HT: 1 – 1
Neratovice-Byškovice
Neratovice-Byškovice
11/5/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov23%
×Draw20%
Neratovice-Byškovice57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.43
Neratovice-Byškovice
2.34

Neratovice-Byškovice creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.62

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Neratovice-Byškovice
1.32

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Neratovice-Byškovice+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Neratovice-Byškovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
43%
Vilémov or Neratovice-Byškovice
80%
Draw or Neratovice-Byškovice
77%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
10%
Neratovice-Byškovice wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
76%
Vilémov 2+ goals
42%
Vilémov 3+ goals
17%
Neratovice-Byškovice 1+ goals
90%
Neratovice-Byškovice 2+ goals
67%
Neratovice-Byškovice 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
29%
Neratovice-Byškovice (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Neratovice-Byškovice away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Neratovice-Byškovice defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Neratovice-Byškovice attack 1.62 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vilémov scores more
23%
level
20%
Neratovice-Byškovice scores more
57%

Neratovice-Byškovice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Neratovice-Byškovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilémov vs Neratovice-Byškovice

Neratovice-Byškovice beat Vilémov 7-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.