Vilémov 1–4 Meteor Praha: Result & Stats

Vilémov

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Meteor Praha

4/29/2023

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 24Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov27%

×Draw20%

Meteor Praha53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilémovExpected goals in this matchMeteor Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.32

Vilémov

1.63

Meteor Praha

2.32

Meteor Praha creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

1.53

creates per match

1.57

3.07

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Vilémov

1.53

Meteor Praha

1.57

allows per match

Vilémov

3.07

Meteor Praha

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par

Meteor Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Meteor Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw

47%

Vilémov or Meteor Praha

80%

Draw or Meteor Praha

73%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+

13%

Meteor Praha wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals

80%

Vilémov 2+ goals

48%

Vilémov 3+ goals

22%

Meteor Praha 1+ goals

90%

Meteor Praha 2+ goals

67%

Meteor Praha 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)

34%

Meteor Praha (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Meteor Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.72 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Meteor Praha defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Meteor Praha attack 1.57 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vilémov scores more

27%

level

20%

Meteor Praha scores more

53%

Meteor Praha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Meteor Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff