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Vilémov vs Louny — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Louny
Louny
8/7/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 1Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov33%
×Draw21%
Louny46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.79
Louny
2.11

Louny creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Louny
1.16

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Louny
2.04

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Louny+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Louny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
54%
Vilémov or Louny
79%
Draw or Louny
67%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
17%
Louny wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
83%
Vilémov 2+ goals
53%
Vilémov 3+ goals
26%
Louny 1+ goals
88%
Louny 2+ goals
62%
Louny 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
42%
Louny (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Louny away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Louny defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Louny attack 1.16 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vilémov scores more
33%
level
21%
Louny scores more
46%

Louny at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Vilémov 1–4 Louny

Louny beat Vilémov 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.