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Vilémov vs Český Brod — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Český Brod
Český Brod
10/8/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 10Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov26%
×Draw21%
Český Brod53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.42
Český Brod
2.08

Český Brod creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Český Brod
1.08

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Český Brod
1.31

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Český Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
47%
Vilémov or Český Brod
79%
Draw or Český Brod
74%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
11%
Český Brod wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
76%
Vilémov 2+ goals
41%
Vilémov 3+ goals
17%
Český Brod 1+ goals
87%
Český Brod 2+ goals
61%
Český Brod 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
33%
Český Brod (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vilémov scores more
26%
level
21%
Český Brod scores more
53%

Český Brod at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Český Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilémov vs Český Brod

Vilémov beat Český Brod 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.