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Vilémov vs Admira Praha II — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Vilémov
Vilémov
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Admira Praha II
Admira Praha II
8/14/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 2Stadion SK Vilémov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilémov35%
×Draw21%
Admira Praha II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilémov
1.83
Admira Praha II
2.08

Admira Praha II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vilémov
1.53
Admira Praha II
1.09

allows per match

Vilémov
3.07
Admira Praha II
2.13

finishing

Vilémov+0.00on par
Admira Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilémov ↓

Admira Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Vilémov or draw
56%
Vilémov or Admira Praha II
79%
Draw or Admira Praha II
65%

Winning margin

Vilémov wins by 2+
18%
Admira Praha II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vilémov 1+ goals
84%
Vilémov 2+ goals
54%
Vilémov 3+ goals
28%
Admira Praha II 1+ goals
87%
Admira Praha II 2+ goals
61%
Admira Praha II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Vilémov (draw refunded)
44%
Admira Praha II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilémov at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

Admira Praha II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilémov attack 1.53 + Admira Praha II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Admira Praha II attack 1.09 + Vilémov defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilémov scores more
35%
level
21%
Admira Praha II scores more
44%

Admira Praha II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Admira Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilémov vs Admira Praha II

Admira Praha II beat Vilémov 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Vilémov in Vilémov u Šluknova.