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Vilaverdense W vs Sporting CP W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Vilaverdense W
Vilaverdense W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting CP W
Sporting CP W
1/27/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 12Estádio Municipal de Vila Verde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vilaverdense W7%
×Draw12%
Sporting CP W81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense W
0.77
Sporting CP W
2.98

Sporting CP W creates 287% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense W
0.97
Sporting CP W
2.74

allows per match

Vilaverdense W
3.21
Sporting CP W
0.57

finishing

Vilaverdense W+0.00on par
Sporting CP W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense W ↓

Sporting CP W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vilaverdense W or draw
19%
Vilaverdense W or Sporting CP W
88%
Draw or Sporting CP W
93%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense W wins by 2+
2%
Sporting CP W wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Vilaverdense W 1+ goals
54%
Vilaverdense W 2+ goals
18%
Vilaverdense W 3+ goals
4%
Sporting CP W 1+ goals
95%
Sporting CP W 2+ goals
79%
Sporting CP W 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense W (draw refunded)
8%
Sporting CP W (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

Sporting CP W away — creates 2.74, concedes 0.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense W attack 0.97 + Sporting CP W defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.77

Sporting CP W attack 2.74 + Vilaverdense W defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Vilaverdense W scores more
7%
level
12%
Sporting CP W scores more
81%

Sporting CP W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sporting CP W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Vilaverdense W 0–0 Sporting CP W

Vilaverdense W and Sporting CP W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vila Verde in Vila Verde.