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Vilaverdense W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Vilaverdense W
Vilaverdense W
FT
0 – 1
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
3/17/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 17Estádio Municipal de Vila Verde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vilaverdense W15%
×Draw18%
Racing Seixal W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense W
1.03
Racing Seixal W
2.38

Racing Seixal W creates 131% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense W
0.97
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Vilaverdense W
3.21
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Vilaverdense W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vilaverdense W or draw
33%
Vilaverdense W or Racing Seixal W
82%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
85%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense W wins by 2+
5%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Vilaverdense W 1+ goals
64%
Vilaverdense W 2+ goals
28%
Vilaverdense W 3+ goals
9%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
91%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
68%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense W (draw refunded)
18%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense W attack 0.97 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Vilaverdense W defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vilaverdense W scores more
15%
level
18%
Racing Seixal W scores more
67%

Racing Seixal W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilaverdense W vs Racing Seixal W

Racing Seixal W beat Vilaverdense W 1-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vila Verde in Vila Verde.