Vilaverdense W 0–4 Estoril Praia W: Result & Stats

Vilaverdense W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Estoril Praia W

11/10/2024

1a Divisão - Women · Round 8Campo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vilaverdense W28%

×Draw19%

Estoril Praia W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilaverdense WExpected goals in this matchEstoril Praia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.52

Vilaverdense W

1.81

Estoril Praia W

2.52

Estoril Praia W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

0.97

creates per match

1.82

3.21

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Vilaverdense W

0.97

Estoril Praia W

1.82

allows per match

Vilaverdense W

3.21

Estoril Praia W

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilaverdense W+0.00on par

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense W ↓

Estoril Praia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Vilaverdense W or draw

47%

Vilaverdense W or Estoril Praia W

81%

Draw or Estoril Praia W

72%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense W wins by 2+

14%

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Vilaverdense W 1+ goals

84%

Vilaverdense W 2+ goals

54%

Vilaverdense W 3+ goals

27%

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals

92%

Estoril Praia W 2+ goals

71%

Estoril Praia W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense W (draw refunded)

34%

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 3.21 · 33 matches

Estoril Praia W away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense W attack 0.97 + Estoril Praia W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Estoril Praia W attack 1.82 + Vilaverdense W defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vilaverdense W scores more

28%

level

19%

Estoril Praia W scores more

53%

Estoril Praia W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estoril Praia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff