Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vilaverdense vs Paredes — Liga 3 2021

Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Paredes
Paredes
12/17/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 12Campo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vilaverdense42%
×Draw30%
Paredes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense
1.18
Paredes
0.91

Vilaverdense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense
1.28
Paredes
0.89

allows per match

Vilaverdense
0.93
Paredes
1.07

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par
Paredes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Paredes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw
72%
Vilaverdense or Paredes
70%
Draw or Paredes
58%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+
18%
Paredes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals
69%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
33%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
12%
Paredes 1+ goals
60%
Paredes 2+ goals
23%
Paredes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
60%
Paredes (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Paredes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 1.28 + Paredes defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Paredes attack 0.89 + Vilaverdense defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilaverdense scores more
42%
level
30%
Paredes scores more
28%

Vilaverdense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Vilaverdense 5–1 Paredes

Vilaverdense beat Paredes 5-1 in Liga 3 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Cruz Do Reguengo in Vila Verde.