Vilaverdense 7–0 Oliveira Hospital: Result & Stats

Vilaverdense

FT

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Oliveira Hospital

11/8/2022

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vilaverdense55%

×Draw20%

Oliveira Hospital26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilaverdenseExpected goals in this matchOliveira Hospital

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.57

Vilaverdense

2.35

Oliveira Hospital

1.57

Vilaverdense creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.40

1.75

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Vilaverdense

2.50

Oliveira Hospital

1.40

allows per match

Vilaverdense

1.75

Oliveira Hospital

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Oliveira Hospital+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Oliveira Hospital →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw

74%

Vilaverdense or Oliveira Hospital

80%

Draw or Oliveira Hospital

45%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+

34%

Oliveira Hospital wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals

90%

Vilaverdense 2+ goals

68%

Vilaverdense 3+ goals

41%

Oliveira Hospital 1+ goals

79%

Oliveira Hospital 2+ goals

46%

Oliveira Hospital 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)

68%

Oliveira Hospital (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Oliveira Hospital away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 2.50 + Oliveira Hospital defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.35

Oliveira Hospital attack 1.40 + Vilaverdense defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vilaverdense scores more

55%

level

20%

Oliveira Hospital scores more

26%

Vilaverdense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff