Vilaverdense 2–3 Olímpico do Montijo

Vilaverdense

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Olímpico do Montijo

11/22/2020

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vilaverdense43%

×Draw22%

Olímpico do Montijo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilaverdenseExpected goals in this matchOlímpico do Montijo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.71

Vilaverdense

1.92

Olímpico do Montijo

1.71

Vilaverdense creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

1.67

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Vilaverdense

2.50

Olímpico do Montijo

1.67

allows per match

Vilaverdense

1.75

Olímpico do Montijo

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw

65%

Vilaverdense or Olímpico do Montijo

78%

Draw or Olímpico do Montijo

57%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+

24%

Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals

85%

Vilaverdense 2+ goals

57%

Vilaverdense 3+ goals

30%

Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals

82%

Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals

51%

Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)

55%

Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 2.50 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Olímpico do Montijo attack 1.67 + Vilaverdense defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilaverdense scores more

43%

level

22%

Olímpico do Montijo scores more

35%

Vilaverdense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff