Vilaverdense 2–1 Mafra: Result & Stats

Vilaverdense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mafra

4/7/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 28Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilaverdense33%

×Draw26%

Mafra41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilaverdenseExpected goals in this matchMafra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.39

Vilaverdense

1.21

Mafra

1.39

Mafra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 114 away

0.94

creates per match

1.10

1.67

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Vilaverdense

0.94

Mafra

1.10

allows per match

Vilaverdense

1.67

Mafra

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par

Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Mafra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw

59%

Vilaverdense or Mafra

74%

Draw or Mafra

67%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+

14%

Mafra wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals

70%

Vilaverdense 2+ goals

34%

Vilaverdense 3+ goals

12%

Mafra 1+ goals

75%

Mafra 2+ goals

40%

Mafra 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)

44%

Mafra (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.49 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 0.94 + Mafra defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mafra attack 1.10 + Vilaverdense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vilaverdense scores more

33%

level

26%

Mafra scores more

41%

Mafra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff