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Vilaverdense vs Canelas 2010 — Liga 3 2021

Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
12/3/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 11Campo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilaverdense43%
×Draw29%
Canelas 201028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense
1.23
Canelas 2010
0.93

Vilaverdense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 42 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense
1.28
Canelas 2010
0.93

allows per match

Vilaverdense
0.93
Canelas 2010
1.19

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw
72%
Vilaverdense or Canelas 2010
71%
Draw or Canelas 2010
57%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+
19%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals
71%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
35%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
13%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
61%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
24%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
61%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 1.28 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Vilaverdense defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilaverdense scores more
43%
level
29%
Canelas 2010 scores more
28%

Vilaverdense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilaverdense vs Canelas 2010

Vilaverdense beat Canelas 2010 3-0 in Liga 3 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Cruz Do Reguengo in Vila Verde.