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Vilaverdense vs Atlético Arcos — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Arcos
Atlético Arcos
9/11/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilaverdense67%
×Draw18%
Atlético Arcos15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense
2.42
Atlético Arcos
1.04

Vilaverdense creates 133% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense
2.50
Atlético Arcos
0.33

allows per match

Vilaverdense
1.75
Atlético Arcos
2.33

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par
Atlético Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Atlético Arcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw
85%
Vilaverdense or Atlético Arcos
82%
Draw or Atlético Arcos
33%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+
45%
Atlético Arcos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals
91%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
69%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
43%
Atlético Arcos 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Arcos 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Arcos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
82%
Atlético Arcos (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Atlético Arcos away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 2.50 + Atlético Arcos defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Atlético Arcos attack 0.33 + Vilaverdense defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Vilaverdense scores more
67%
level
18%
Atlético Arcos scores more
15%

Vilaverdense at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Vilaverdense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilaverdense vs Atlético Arcos

Vilaverdense beat Atlético Arcos 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Cruz Do Reguengo in Vila Verde.