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Vilaverdense vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilaverdense
Vilaverdense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
1/19/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 18Campo Cruz Do Reguengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilaverdense31%
×Draw26%
Academico Viseu43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilaverdense
1.16
Academico Viseu
1.42

Academico Viseu creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 133 away

creates per match

Vilaverdense
0.94
Academico Viseu
1.16

allows per match

Vilaverdense
1.67
Academico Viseu
1.38

finishing

Vilaverdense+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilaverdense ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vilaverdense or draw
57%
Vilaverdense or Academico Viseu
74%
Draw or Academico Viseu
69%

Winning margin

Vilaverdense wins by 2+
12%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vilaverdense 1+ goals
69%
Vilaverdense 2+ goals
32%
Vilaverdense 3+ goals
11%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
76%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
41%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vilaverdense (draw refunded)
42%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilaverdense at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.38 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilaverdense attack 0.94 + Academico Viseu defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Academico Viseu attack 1.16 + Vilaverdense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilaverdense scores more
31%
level
26%
Academico Viseu scores more
43%

Academico Viseu at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Vilaverdense 0–2 Academico Viseu

Academico Viseu beat Vilaverdense 2-0 in Segunda Liga on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Cruz Do Reguengo in Vila Verde.