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Vilassar Mar vs Vilanova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vilanova
Vilanova
J. Moreno 35'
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Camp de Futbol Premià de Dalt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vilassar Mar40%
×Draw32%
Vilanova28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilassar Mar
1.02
Vilanova
0.81

Vilassar Mar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vilassar Mar
1.28
Vilanova
0.53

allows per match

Vilassar Mar
1.09
Vilanova
0.76

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par
Vilanova+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Vilanova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw
72%
Vilassar Mar or Vilanova
68%
Draw or Vilanova
60%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
15%
Vilanova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
64%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
27%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
8%
Vilanova 1+ goals
56%
Vilanova 2+ goals
19%
Vilanova 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
58%
Vilanova (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Vilanova away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Vilanova defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Vilanova attack 0.53 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more
40%
level
32%
Vilanova scores more
28%

Vilassar Mar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
J. Moreno

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 1–0 Vilanova

Vilassar Mar beat Vilanova 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: J. Moreno (35').

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Premià de Dalt in Premià de Dalt.