Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vilassar Mar vs Montañesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Montañesa
Montañesa
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vilassar Mar48%
×Draw28%
Montañesa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilassar Mar
1.38
Montañesa
0.89

Vilassar Mar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vilassar Mar
1.28
Montañesa
0.68

allows per match

Vilassar Mar
1.09
Montañesa
1.47

finishing

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par
Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilassar Mar ↓

Montañesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vilassar Mar or draw
76%
Vilassar Mar or Montañesa
72%
Draw or Montañesa
52%

Winning margin

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
23%
Montañesa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
75%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
40%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
16%
Montañesa 1+ goals
59%
Montañesa 2+ goals
22%
Montañesa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
67%
Montañesa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilassar Mar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.09 · 108 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilassar Mar attack 1.28 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vilassar Mar scores more
48%
level
28%
Montañesa scores more
24%

Vilassar Mar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vilassar Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilassar Mar 2–1 Montañesa

Vilassar Mar beat Montañesa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon in Vilassar de Mar.