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Vilanova vs Manresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilanova
Vilanova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Manresa
Manresa
Z. Thior 27'
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilanova43%
×Draw28%
Manresa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilanova
1.33
Manresa
1.04

Vilanova creates 28% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vilanova
1.61
Manresa
1.26

allows per match

Vilanova
0.83
Manresa
1.05

finishing

Vilanova+0.00on par
Manresa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilanova ↓

Manresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vilanova or draw
71%
Vilanova or Manresa
72%
Draw or Manresa
57%

Winning margin

Vilanova wins by 2+
20%
Manresa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vilanova 1+ goals
74%
Vilanova 2+ goals
38%
Vilanova 3+ goals
15%
Manresa 1+ goals
65%
Manresa 2+ goals
28%
Manresa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilanova (draw refunded)
60%
Manresa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilanova at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Manresa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilanova attack 1.61 + Manresa defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manresa attack 1.26 + Vilanova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilanova scores more
43%
level
28%
Manresa scores more
29%

Vilanova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Z. Thior

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilanova 1–0 Manresa

Vilanova beat Manresa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 28, 2025.

Goals: Z. Thior (27').

The match was played at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers in Villanueva y Geltrú (Vilanova i la Geltrú).