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Vilanova vs Lleida Esportiu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilanova
Vilanova
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Lleida Esportiu
Lleida Esportiu
J. Torrents 28'
A. Bocardo 18'
A. Celma 3'
A. Leon 72'
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vilanova60%
×Draw24%
Lleida Esportiu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilanova
1.66
Lleida Esportiu
0.71

Vilanova creates 134% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vilanova
1.61
Lleida Esportiu
0.59

allows per match

Vilanova
0.83
Lleida Esportiu
1.71

finishing

Vilanova+0.00on par
Lleida Esportiu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilanova ↓

Lleida Esportiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vilanova or draw
84%
Vilanova or Lleida Esportiu
76%
Draw or Lleida Esportiu
40%

Winning margin

Vilanova wins by 2+
33%
Lleida Esportiu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vilanova 1+ goals
81%
Vilanova 2+ goals
49%
Vilanova 3+ goals
23%
Lleida Esportiu 1+ goals
51%
Lleida Esportiu 2+ goals
16%
Lleida Esportiu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vilanova (draw refunded)
79%
Lleida Esportiu (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilanova at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Lleida Esportiu away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilanova attack 1.61 + Lleida Esportiu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lleida Esportiu attack 0.59 + Vilanova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vilanova scores more
60%
level
24%
Lleida Esportiu scores more
16%

Vilanova at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Celma
18'
A. Bocardo
28'
J. Torrents
72'
A. Leon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilanova vs Lleida Esportiu

Vilanova beat Lleida Esportiu 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Celma (3'), A. Bocardo (18'), J. Torrents (28'), A. Leon (72').

The match was played at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers in Villanueva y Geltrú (Vilanova i la Geltrú).