Vilanova 2–1 Badalona: Result & Stats

Vilanova

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Badalona

D. Jimenez Guardia 85'

Z. Thior 66'

Unknown 40' (OG)

11/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vilanova45%

×Draw28%

Badalona27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilanovaExpected goals in this matchBadalona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Vilanova

1.31

Badalona

0.94

Vilanova creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.61

creates per match

1.05

0.83

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vilanova

1.61

Badalona

1.05

allows per match

Vilanova

0.83

Badalona

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilanova+0.00on par

Badalona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilanova ↓

Badalona →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vilanova or draw

73%

Vilanova or Badalona

72%

Draw or Badalona

55%

Winning margin

Vilanova wins by 2+

21%

Badalona wins by 2+

Team goals

Vilanova 1+ goals

73%

Vilanova 2+ goals

38%

Vilanova 3+ goals

14%

Badalona 1+ goals

61%

Badalona 2+ goals

24%

Badalona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilanova (draw refunded)

63%

Badalona (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilanova at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Badalona away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilanova attack 1.61 + Badalona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Badalona attack 1.05 + Vilanova defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vilanova scores more

45%

level

28%

Badalona scores more

27%

Vilanova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vilanova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Own goal

66'

Z. Thior

85'

D. Jimenez Guardia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilanova vs Badalona

Vilanova beat Badalona 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 8, 2025.

Goals: ? (40' o.g.), Z. Thior (66'), D. Jimenez Guardia (85').

The match was played at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers in Villanueva y Geltrú (Vilanova i la Geltrú).

Vilanova vs Badalona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilanova vs Badalona