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Vilamarxant vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant31%
×Draw26%
Villarreal III43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.19
Villarreal III
1.46

Villarreal III creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 112 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
57%
Vilamarxant or Villarreal III
74%
Draw or Villarreal III
69%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
13%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
70%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
33%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
12%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
77%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
43%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
42%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
31%
level
26%
Villarreal III scores more
43%

Villarreal III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Vilamarxant 0–2 Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Vilamarxant 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Hermanos Albiol in Ribarroja del Turia.