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Vilamarxant vs Villajoyosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Villajoyosa
Villajoyosa
5/30/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant43%
×Draw27%
Villajoyosa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.35
Villajoyosa
1.06

Vilamarxant creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Villajoyosa
0.56

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Villajoyosa
1.56

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Villajoyosa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Villajoyosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
71%
Vilamarxant or Villajoyosa
73%
Draw or Villajoyosa
57%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
20%
Villajoyosa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
74%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
39%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
15%
Villajoyosa 1+ goals
65%
Villajoyosa 2+ goals
29%
Villajoyosa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
60%
Villajoyosa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Villajoyosa away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Villajoyosa attack 0.56 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
43%
level
27%
Villajoyosa scores more
29%

Vilamarxant at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilamarxant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Vilamarxant 0–4 Villajoyosa

Villajoyosa beat Vilamarxant 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Hermanos Albiol in Ribarroja del Turia.