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Vilamarxant vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
CANC
00:00
Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 35Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant39%
×Draw28%
Olímpic Xàtiva33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.27
Olímpic Xàtiva
1.14

Vilamarxant creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.73

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Olímpic Xàtiva
1.41

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
67%
Vilamarxant or Olímpic Xàtiva
72%
Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva
61%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
17%
Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
72%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
36%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
14%
Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
68%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
32%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
54%
Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
39%
level
28%
Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
33%

Vilamarxant at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vilamarxant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vilamarxant vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Match Preview

Vilamarxant face Olímpic Xàtiva on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vilamarxant host Olímpic Xàtiva at Estadio Hermanos Albiol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.