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Vilamarxant vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
CANC
22:00
Jove Español
Jove Español
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant35%
×Draw28%
Jove Español37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.17
Jove Español
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 110 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
63%
Vilamarxant or Jove Español
72%
Draw or Jove Español
65%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
15%
Jove Español wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
69%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
33%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
11%
Jove Español 1+ goals
70%
Jove Español 2+ goals
34%
Jove Español 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
49%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
35%
level
28%
Jove Español scores more
37%

Jove Español at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vilamarxant face Jove Español (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 returns with Vilamarxant hosting Jove Español. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vilamarxant host Jove Español at Estadio Hermanos Albiol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.