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Vilamarxant vs Hércules II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
CANC
00:00
Hércules II
Hércules II
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant36%
×Draw28%
Hércules II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.18
Hércules II
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 78 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Hércules II
0.81

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Hércules II
1.22

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Hércules II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
64%
Vilamarxant or Hércules II
72%
Draw or Hércules II
64%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
15%
Hércules II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
69%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
33%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
12%
Hércules II 1+ goals
69%
Hércules II 2+ goals
33%
Hércules II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
50%
Hércules II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
36%
level
28%
Hércules II scores more
36%

Vilamarxant at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vilamarxant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vilamarxant vs Hércules II — Match Preview

Vilamarxant face Hércules II on April 12, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Vilamarxant host Hércules II at Estadio Hermanos Albiol.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.