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Vilamarxant vs Crevillente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Crevillente
Crevillente
4/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant37%
×Draw27%
Crevillente35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.25
Crevillente
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 62 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Crevillente
0.87

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Crevillente
1.35

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Crevillente+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Crevillente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
65%
Vilamarxant or Crevillente
73%
Draw or Crevillente
63%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
16%
Crevillente wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
71%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
36%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
13%
Crevillente 1+ goals
70%
Crevillente 2+ goals
34%
Crevillente 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
51%
Crevillente (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Crevillente away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.35 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Crevillente defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Crevillente attack 0.87 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
37%
level
27%
Crevillente scores more
35%

Vilamarxant at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vilamarxant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Vilamarxant 2–1 Crevillente

Vilamarxant beat Crevillente 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Hermanos Albiol in Ribarroja del Turia.