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Vilamarxant vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Vilamarxant
Vilamarxant
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alzira
Alzira
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Vilamarxant33%
×Draw27%
Alzira39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilamarxant
1.16
Alzira
1.29

Alzira creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vilamarxant
1.14
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

Vilamarxant
1.55
Alzira
1.18

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw
61%
Vilamarxant or Alzira
73%
Draw or Alzira
67%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+
14%
Alzira wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals
69%
Vilamarxant 2+ goals
32%
Vilamarxant 3+ goals
11%
Alzira 1+ goals
72%
Alzira 2+ goals
37%
Alzira 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)
46%
Alzira (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Alzira attack 1.02 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vilamarxant scores more
33%
level
27%
Alzira scores more
39%

Alzira at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alzira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilamarxant vs Alzira

Alzira beat Vilamarxant 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Hermanos Albiol in Ribarroja del Turia.