Vilamarxant 1–2 Alcoyano: Result & Stats

Vilamarxant

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alcoyano

9/28/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Estadio Hermanos Albiol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vilamarxant21%

×Draw25%

Alcoyano54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilamarxantExpected goals in this matchAlcoyano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.59

Vilamarxant

0.89

Alcoyano

1.59

Alcoyano creates 79% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

1.14

creates per match

1.64

1.55

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Vilamarxant

1.14

Alcoyano

1.64

allows per match

Vilamarxant

1.55

Alcoyano

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilamarxant+0.00on par

Alcoyano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilamarxant ↓

Alcoyano →

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vilamarxant or draw

46%

Vilamarxant or Alcoyano

75%

Draw or Alcoyano

79%

Winning margin

Vilamarxant wins by 2+

Alcoyano wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Vilamarxant 1+ goals

59%

Vilamarxant 2+ goals

22%

Vilamarxant 3+ goals

Alcoyano 1+ goals

80%

Alcoyano 2+ goals

47%

Alcoyano 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Vilamarxant (draw refunded)

28%

Alcoyano (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilamarxant at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

Alcoyano away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilamarxant attack 1.14 + Alcoyano defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.89

Alcoyano attack 1.64 + Vilamarxant defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vilamarxant scores more

21%

level

25%

Alcoyano scores more

54%

Alcoyano at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alcoyano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff