Vilafranquense 1–1 Real: Result & Stats

Vilafranquense

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real

10/16/2021

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Chã das Padeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilafranquense17%

×Draw23%

Real60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafranquenseExpected goals in this matchReal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.80

Vilafranquense

0.83

Real

1.80

Real creates 117% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vilafranquense

0.67

Real

1.60

allows per match

Vilafranquense

2.00

Real

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Real+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Real →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw

40%

Vilafranquense or Real

77%

Draw or Real

83%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

5%

Real wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

56%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

20%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

5%

Real 1+ goals

83%

Real 2+ goals

54%

Real 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

22%

Real (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Real away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 0.67 + Real defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Real attack 1.60 + Vilafranquense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vilafranquense scores more

17%

level

23%

Real scores more

60%

Real at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff