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Vilafranquense vs Oliveirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Oliveirense
Oliveirense
8/14/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 2Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Vilafranquense44%
×Draw26%
Oliveirense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.46
Oliveirense
1.17

Vilafranquense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 114 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Oliveirense
0.93

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Oliveirense
1.66

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Oliveirense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Oliveirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
70%
Vilafranquense or Oliveirense
74%
Draw or Oliveirense
56%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
21%
Oliveirense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
77%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
43%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
18%
Oliveirense 1+ goals
69%
Oliveirense 2+ goals
33%
Oliveirense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
59%
Oliveirense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Oliveirense away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Oliveirense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oliveirense attack 0.93 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
44%
level
26%
Oliveirense scores more
30%

Vilafranquense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vilafranquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilafranquense vs Oliveirense

Vilafranquense beat Oliveirense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.