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Vilafranquense vs Mafra — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mafra
Mafra
11/21/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundCampo do Cevadeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilafranquense19%
×Draw23%
Mafra59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
0.91
Mafra
1.82

Mafra creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
0.67
Mafra
1.64

allows per match

Vilafranquense
2.00
Mafra
1.14

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Mafra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Mafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
41%
Vilafranquense or Mafra
77%
Draw or Mafra
81%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
6%
Mafra wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
60%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
23%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
6%
Mafra 1+ goals
84%
Mafra 2+ goals
54%
Mafra 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
24%
Mafra (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Mafra away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 0.67 + Mafra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Mafra attack 1.64 + Vilafranquense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
19%
level
23%
Mafra scores more
59%

Mafra at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilafranquense vs Mafra

Mafra beat Vilafranquense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 21, 2021.

The match was played at Campo do Cevadeiro in Vila Franca de Xira.