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Vilafranquense vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
CANC
15:00
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
4/19/2020Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 29Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vilafranquense45%
×Draw26%
Cova De Piedade29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.45
Cova De Piedade
1.11

Vilafranquense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
71%
Vilafranquense or Cova De Piedade
74%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
55%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
22%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
77%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
42%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
18%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
67%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
30%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
61%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
45%
level
26%
Cova De Piedade scores more
29%

Vilafranquense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vilafranquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vilafranquense host Cova De Piedade

April 19, 2020: Vilafranquense take on Cova De Piedade in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vilafranquense host Cova De Piedade at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.