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Vilafranquense vs Chaves — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
CANC
15:00
Chaves
Chaves
4/26/2020Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 31Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Vilafranquense34%
×Draw27%
Chaves39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.21
Chaves
1.33

Chaves creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 80 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Chaves
1.26

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Chaves
1.15

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
61%
Vilafranquense or Chaves
73%
Draw or Chaves
66%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
14%
Chaves wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
70%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
34%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
12%
Chaves 1+ goals
74%
Chaves 2+ goals
38%
Chaves 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
46%
Chaves (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Chaves defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chaves attack 1.26 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
34%
level
27%
Chaves scores more
39%

Chaves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vilafranquense host Chaves

April 26, 2020: Vilafranquense take on Chaves in Segunda Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vilafranquense host Chaves at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.