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Vilafranquense vs Benfica B — Segunda Liga 2018

Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Benfica B
Benfica B
5/1/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 32Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Vilafranquense38%
×Draw25%
Benfica B37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranquense
1.40
Benfica B
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 132 away

creates per match

Vilafranquense
1.27
Benfica B
1.36

allows per match

Vilafranquense
1.40
Benfica B
1.53

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par
Benfica B+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Benfica B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw
63%
Vilafranquense or Benfica B
75%
Draw or Benfica B
62%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+
17%
Benfica B wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals
75%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
41%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
17%
Benfica B 1+ goals
75%
Benfica B 2+ goals
40%
Benfica B 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
51%
Benfica B (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Benfica B away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.53 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 1.27 + Benfica B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Benfica B attack 1.36 + Vilafranquense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vilafranquense scores more
38%
level
25%
Benfica B scores more
37%

Vilafranquense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vilafranquense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Vilafranquense 1–2 Benfica B

Benfica B beat Vilafranquense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.