Vilafranquense 0–4 Anadia: Result & Stats

Vilafranquense

FT

0 – 4

Anadia

10/21/2018

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo do Cevadeiro (Vila Franca de Xira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vilafranquense23%

×Draw23%

Anadia54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafranquenseExpected goals in this matchAnadia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.85

Vilafranquense

1.12

Anadia

1.85

Anadia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

0.67

creates per match

1.71

2.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vilafranquense

0.67

Anadia

1.71

allows per match

Vilafranquense

2.00

Anadia

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Anadia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranquense ↓

Anadia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vilafranquense or draw

46%

Vilafranquense or Anadia

77%

Draw or Anadia

77%

Winning margin

Vilafranquense wins by 2+

9%

Anadia wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Vilafranquense 1+ goals

67%

Vilafranquense 2+ goals

31%

Vilafranquense 3+ goals

10%

Anadia 1+ goals

84%

Anadia 2+ goals

55%

Anadia 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Vilafranquense (draw refunded)

30%

Anadia (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranquense at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Anadia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranquense attack 0.67 + Anadia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Anadia attack 1.71 + Vilafranquense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vilafranquense scores more

23%

level

23%

Anadia scores more

54%

Anadia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff