Vilafranca 1–0 Valls: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valls

David Fontanils 15'

2/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vilafranca43%

×Draw30%

Valls27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchValls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.86

Vilafranca

1.16

Valls

0.86

Vilafranca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

1.19

creates per match

0.73

0.99

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Valls

0.73

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Valls

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Valls+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Valls →

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

73%

Vilafranca or Valls

70%

Draw or Valls

57%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

18%

Valls wins by 2+

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

69%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

32%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

11%

Valls 1+ goals

58%

Valls 2+ goals

21%

Valls 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

61%

Valls (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Valls away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Valls defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Valls attack 0.73 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vilafranca scores more

43%

level

30%

Valls scores more

27%

Vilafranca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

David Fontanils

46'

Dani Sánchez← Illescas

46'

Boira← Rusi

57'

Ramón Miranda← Xavi Fabra

57'

Cesc Martínez← Jordi Prades

57'

Arnau Miro← Sergio Giralte

67'

Sanku← Anselm Pasquina

75'

Oscar Pérez← Jordi Estivill

77'

Sergi Gestí← Gerard Moya

78'

Pol Vía← Sergi Escofet

Vilafranca

Valls

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Moreno

46'▲Dani Sánchez←▼Illescas

46'▲Boira←▼Rusi

67'▲Sanku←▼Anselm Pasquina

78'▲Pol Vía←▼Sergi Escofet

Vilafranca substitutes

SánchezBoiraSankuVía

Manager: Joan Pallarés

57'▲Ramón Miranda←▼Xavi Fabra

57'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Jordi Prades

57'▲Arnau Miro←▼Sergio Giralte

75'▲Oscar Pérez←▼Jordi Estivill

77'▲Sergi Gestí←▼Gerard Moya

Valls substitutes

MirandaMartínezMiroPérezGestí

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 1–0 Valls

Vilafranca beat Valls 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 27, 2021.

Goals: David Fontanils (15').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Valls — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 1–0 Valls