Vilafranca 2–0 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Terrassa

Xavi Civil 46'

Víctor Oribe 5'

9/11/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Vilafranca31%

×Draw29%

Terrassa40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.18

Vilafranca

1.02

Terrassa

1.18

Terrassa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 28 away

1.19

creates per match

1.36

0.99

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Terrassa →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

60%

Vilafranca or Terrassa

71%

Draw or Terrassa

69%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

12%

Terrassa wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

64%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

27%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

Terrassa 1+ goals

69%

Terrassa 2+ goals

33%

Terrassa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

44%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vilafranca scores more

31%

level

29%

Terrassa scores more

40%

Terrassa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Víctor Oribe

46'

Xavi Civil

49'

Sergi Escofet← Illescas

53'

Kevin← Emilio Lucas

60'

David López← Alex Fernández

71'

Kilian Villaverde← Domi Berlanga

74'

L. Tremiño← Ángel Pérez

85'

Oriol Boada← Xavi Civil

Vilafranca

Terrassa

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Civil

Manager: Iván Moreno

49'▲Sergi Escofet←▼Illescas

74'▲L. Tremiño←▼Ángel Pérez

85'▲Oriol Boada←▼Xavi Civil

Vilafranca substitutes

EscofetTremiñoBoada

Manager: Molist

53'▲Kevin←▼Emilio Lucas

60'▲David López←▼Alex Fernández

71'▲Kilian Villaverde←▼Domi Berlanga

Terrassa substitutes

KevinLópezVillaverde

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Terrassa

Vilafranca beat Terrassa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 11, 2019.

Goals: Víctor Oribe (5'), Xavi Civil (46').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Terrassa