Vilafranca 0–0 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Cristóbal

11/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Vilafranca42%

×Draw30%

San Cristóbal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.89

Vilafranca

1.17

San Cristóbal

0.89

Vilafranca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 108 away

1.19

creates per match

0.78

0.99

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

San Cristóbal

0.78

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

San Cristóbal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

San Cristóbal →

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

72%

Vilafranca or San Cristóbal

70%

Draw or San Cristóbal

58%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

18%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

69%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

33%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

11%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

59%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

22%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

60%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilafranca scores more

42%

level

30%

San Cristóbal scores more

28%

Vilafranca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Abdeslam Elouliad← Sanku

61'

Alexis García← Godbless

67'

Illescas← L. Bastie

81'

Izan Maldonado← Aleix Díaz

81'

Joel Bona← Arnau Villanueva

85'

Cucu← A. Jiménez

85'

Eric Cañete← Tom Diawara

Vilafranca

San

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joan Agüera

61'▲Alexis García←▼Godbless

67'▲Illescas←▼L. Bastie

81'▲Izan Maldonado←▼Aleix Díaz

81'▲Joel Bona←▼Arnau Villanueva

Vilafranca substitutes

GarcíaIllescasMaldonadoBona

Manager: Daniel Andreu

58'▲Abdeslam Elouliad←▼Sanku

85'▲Cucu←▼A. Jiménez

85'▲Eric Cañete←▼Tom Diawara

San Cristóbal substitutes

ElouliadCucuCañete

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 0–0 San Cristóbal

Vilafranca and San Cristóbal drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vilafranca 0–0 San Cristóbal