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Vilafranca vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilafranca
Vilafranca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Vilafranca42%
×Draw28%
Pobla Mafumet30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranca
1.27
Pobla Mafumet
1.03

Vilafranca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vilafranca
1.19
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

Vilafranca
0.99
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw
70%
Vilafranca or Pobla Mafumet
72%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
58%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+
19%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals
72%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
36%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
14%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
64%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
28%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)
58%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vilafranca scores more
42%
level
28%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
30%

Vilafranca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vilafranca 2 – 0 Pobla Mafumet

Vilafranca beat Pobla Mafumet 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.