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Vilafranca vs Montañesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilafranca
Vilafranca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montañesa
Montañesa
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 7Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Vilafranca48%
×Draw28%
Montañesa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranca
1.33
Montañesa
0.83

Vilafranca creates 60% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 81 away

creates per match

Vilafranca
1.19
Montañesa
0.68

allows per match

Vilafranca
0.99
Montañesa
1.47

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par
Montañesa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Montañesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw
77%
Vilafranca or Montañesa
72%
Draw or Montañesa
52%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+
23%
Montañesa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals
74%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
38%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
15%
Montañesa 1+ goals
56%
Montañesa 2+ goals
20%
Montañesa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)
67%
Montañesa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Montañesa away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Montañesa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Montañesa attack 0.68 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vilafranca scores more
48%
level
28%
Montañesa scores more
23%

Vilafranca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Montañesa

Vilafranca and Montañesa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.