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Vilafranca vs Guineueta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vilafranca
Vilafranca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Guineueta
Guineueta
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Estadi Zem de Vilafranca del Penedès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vilafranca54%
×Draw26%
Guineueta19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilafranca
1.50
Guineueta
0.78

Vilafranca creates 92% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vilafranca
1.19
Guineueta
0.56

allows per match

Vilafranca
0.99
Guineueta
1.81

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par
Guineueta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Guineueta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw
81%
Vilafranca or Guineueta
74%
Draw or Guineueta
46%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+
28%
Guineueta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals
78%
Vilafranca 2+ goals
44%
Vilafranca 3+ goals
19%
Guineueta 1+ goals
54%
Guineueta 2+ goals
18%
Guineueta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)
74%
Guineueta (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Guineueta away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Guineueta defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Guineueta attack 0.56 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vilafranca scores more
54%
level
26%
Guineueta scores more
19%

Vilafranca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Guineueta

Vilafranca and Guineueta drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Zem de Vilafranca del Penedès in Vilafranca del Penedès.