Vilafranca 1–0 Granollers: Result & Stats

Vilafranca

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Granollers

Toni Cunill 88'

4/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 3Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vilafranca38%

×Draw27%

Granollers35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VilafrancaExpected goals in this matchGranollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Vilafranca

1.29

Granollers

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

1.19

creates per match

1.44

0.99

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Vilafranca

1.19

Granollers

1.44

allows per match

Vilafranca

0.99

Granollers

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilafranca+0.00on par

Granollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilafranca ↓

Granollers →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vilafranca or draw

65%

Vilafranca or Granollers

73%

Draw or Granollers

62%

Winning margin

Vilafranca wins by 2+

17%

Granollers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vilafranca 1+ goals

72%

Vilafranca 2+ goals

37%

Vilafranca 3+ goals

14%

Granollers 1+ goals

70%

Granollers 2+ goals

34%

Granollers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vilafranca (draw refunded)

53%

Granollers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vilafranca at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

Granollers away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vilafranca attack 1.19 + Granollers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Granollers attack 1.44 + Vilafranca defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vilafranca scores more

38%

level

27%

Granollers scores more

35%

Vilafranca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vilafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Marc Río← Pau Darbra

65'

Sergi Escofet← Pol Vía

65'

Albert Andres-Llop← Illescas

72'

Sanku← Anselm Pasquina

76'

Sergi Altimira← Marc Gelmà

76'

Arnau Campeny← Adrià Prado

84'

Álex Segura← A. Mejía

87'

Muñi← Oriol Molins

87'

Dani Muela← Albert Ruiz

88'

Toni Cunill

Vilafranca

Granollers

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Moreno

65'▲Sergi Escofet←▼Pol Vía

65'▲Albert Andres-Llop←▼Illescas

72'▲Sanku←▼Anselm Pasquina

84'▲Álex Segura←▼A. Mejía

Vilafranca substitutes

EscofetAndres-LlopSankuSegura

Manager: José Solivelles

58'▲Marc Río←▼Pau Darbra

76'▲Sergi Altimira←▼Marc Gelmà

76'▲Arnau Campeny←▼Adrià Prado

87'▲Muñi←▼Oriol Molins

87'▲Dani Muela←▼Albert Ruiz

Granollers substitutes

RíoAltimiraCampenyMuñiMuela

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Granollers

Vilafranca beat Granollers 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 24, 2021.

Goals: Toni Cunill (88').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Esports in Vilafranca del Penedès.

Vilafranca vs Granollers — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vilafranca vs Granollers